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March 4, 2011

 

 

·        Oil prices spur ethanol makers to crank it up

·        New growth regulators are more effective  

·        Tiny wasp puts the big hurt on stink bugs

·        Plowing new vegetable ground in S. Africa

·        Berkeley project seeks global warming truth

 

 

Oil prices spur ethanol makers to crank it up

 

(Los Angeles Times) – Corn-based ethanol is the renewable fuel environmentalists love to hate. But as turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has sent oil prices soaring, U.S.-made ethanol is making a comeback.

 

Plants mothballed during the economic downturn are reopening. Domestic ethanol production hit record levels last year, topping 13.2 billion gallons, according to the Renewable Fuels Assn. in Washington. Oil companies including Valero Energy Corp., Sunoco Inc. and Marathon Oil Corp. that snapped up facilities when the industry hit a rough patch a few years ago are looking to expand.

 

The recovery can be seen in Stockton, where a once-shuttered factory is now thundering to life. Train cars laden with Midwestern corn arrive daily to feed the grinding mills and steaming pipes that distill the grain into gasoline substitute. The surrounding air is pungent with the smell of yeast.

 

For the plant's owner, Pacific Ethanol Inc., which weathered bankruptcy and is slowly reviving three of its plants, it's a whiff of vindication.

 

"Ethanol is an important part of the country's energy picture these days," said Neil Koehler, chief executive of the Sacramento firm.

 

That's largely because of Uncle Sam. Concerned about U.S. reliance on foreign oil, federal lawmakers mandated the nation to quadruple its use of biofuels to 36 billion gallons annually by 2022 from 2008 levels. Corn-based ethanol is assured a 15-billion-gallon share of that market. Plus it's heavily subsidized. The federal government gives producers a 45-cent-a-gallon tax credit. A number of states provide subsidies as well.

 

The liquid is blended into almost every gallon of unleaded gasoline sold in the U.S and accounts for about 10% of the fuel that motorists pump into their cars. That percentage is set to rise as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently approved the use of blends of up to 15% ethanol for newer vehicles.

 

That's good news for the ethanol industry with oil now topping $100 a barrel and motorists experiencing sticker shock at the pump. On Wednesday, the average price for a gallon of unleaded fuel was $3.39 nationwide and $3.78 in California, both up about 20 cents over the last week, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

 

"At a time of increased energy uncertainty and volatility, domestic ethanol production … is helping create the kind of economic and energy opportunities this country will need to regain control over our future," said Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Assn.

 

But whether corn ethanol is good for the planet, U.S. taxpayers, the global food supply — or even an automobile's engine — is a matter of intense debate.

 

Some scientists have concluded that growing corn, harvesting and distilling it, and trucking it to refineries causes as much environmental damage as burning oil. Many environmentalists want taxpayer subsidies devoted to developing next-generation biofuels rather than supporting big agribusiness and the oil companies that are now operating ethanol plants.

 

Budget hawks also want to end ethanol subsidies at a time when commodities prices are rising and the U.S. budget deficit is ballooning. An estimated 35% of the U.S. corn crop will be devoted to ethanol this year, a figure that makes some agricultural and global food policy analysts uneasy.

 

Speaking at an Agriculture Department conference in February, former President Clinton warned about the need to strike a balance between farming for food and biofuels, given political instability in parts of the developing world.

 

"We have to become energy independent. We don't want to do it at the expense of food riots," Clinton said.

 

Auto manufacturers are concerned as well. They're suing the EPA to stop sales of the 15% ethanol blend, known as E-15, which they said would confuse consumers and damage older vehicles.

 

Ethanol industry officials said E-15 pumps would be clearly marked, so consumers would not be misled. And they said political instability in the Middle East and rising oil prices are to blame for higher food prices. Far from taking corn out of the global food supply, ethanol proponents said, the distillation process yields a protein-rich grain byproduct that's being used to feed livestock.

 

Critics of ethanol aren't deterring investors — 17 idled ethanol plants have reopened across the United States in the last year. And the country's largest producer, POET Ethanol Products, is seeking federal help to construct a 1,800-mile, $4-billion ethanol pipeline.

 

Despite the turnaround, memories of the previous bust still linger. In the early to mid-2000s, investors poured billions of dollars into U.S. ethanol plants. But the building frenzy led to a glut of product. When the economic downturn hit and corn prices spiked in 2008, rural America was littered with closed plants and bankrupt producers.

 

Pacific Ethanol's Koehler recalls that boom-bust cycle too well. The company was founded by former California Secretary of State Bill Jones, a political ally of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, and backed partly by Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates' Cascade Investment. During its heyday in 2006, it operated four plants, including one in Stockton and another in Madera.

 

In 2009, as the industry slumped, Pacific Ethanol's subsidiary that operated the plants filed for bankruptcy protection. Three of its four facilities, including both California sites, were closed.

 

But the company has been resurrected by the recent market shift — and with taxpayer help.

 

State subsidies, drawn from a $15-million fund for alternative fuels, helped the company reopen its Stockton plant in December and hire a staff of 45.

 

Pacific Ethanol is now applying for more taxpayer subsidies to reopen its plant in Madera.

 

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New growth regulators are more effective

 

(Purdue University via Medical News Today) – A Purdue University scientist and researchers in Japan have produced a new class of improved plant growth regulators that are expected to be less toxic to humans.

 

Angus Murphy, a professor of horticulture, said the growth inhibitors block the transport of auxin, a plant hormone that, when transported throughout the plant, controls growth processes. Current growth regulators that inhibit auxin transport are inefficient because they also have hormonelike activity or affect other important plant processes. Current growth inhibitors also are often toxic.

 

Growth regulators are important in ornamental plants and horticultural crops that would require labor-intensive manipulation and pruning. The inhibitors are used to keep plants a desired size and shape and control fruit formation.

 

"These regulators would be used primarily on ornamental plants, flowers and trees that aren't going to be genetically changed easily," Murphy said. "Growth regulators are used regularly on this type of plant. Inhibition of auxin transport with these new compounds is also an alternative to the use of more toxic regulators like 2,4-D."

 

The toxicity of growth regulators can be an environmental concern and add safety and monitoring costs to commercial growing operations. They are generally not applied to edible portions of plants or are applied early enough that there is little or no residue on edible portions of plants.

 

The new plant growth inhibitors are derived from natural and artificial auxins but have a bulky benzoyl group - a chemical conjugate derived from benzoic acid - attached that prevents movement of the inhibitor out of the cell.

 

"Since it looks like auxin, it will open the door, but it can't get through," Murphy said. "However, these new growth regulators have no hormonal activity themselves."

 

Murphy worked with scientists from several universities in Japan, including Okayama University of Science, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Niigata University and the Nara Institute of Science and Technology. Their findings were reported in the Journal of Biological Chemistry.

 

Murphy said he would continue studying how to regulate other hormonal pathways in plants and use the new regulator to understand hormonal transport in plants. Companies licensed by the Japanese institutes will continue environmental and toxicity testing of the regulators in greenhouse and field trials.

 

The Office of Basic Energy Sciences of the U.S. Department of Energy funded the research.

 

Source: Purdue University

 

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Tiny wasp puts the big hurt on stink bugs

 

(The Baltimore Sun) Newark, Del. — Maryland's newest terrorist life form — the brown marmorated stink bug — may eventually meet its archnemesis in the form of a tiny prizefighter of a wasp from Asia.

 

The parasitic wasps that are being raised in quarantine in a Delaware laboratory are not glamorous-looking bugs. They are black, stocky and about the size of the comma in this sentence.

 

But they are uncommonly efficient at hunting down and injecting their offspring into stink bug egg masses. In true horror-movie fashion, the larvae consume the stink bugs from the inside out. When the wasps grow into adults, they chew their way out, procreate — and go on the hunt for more stink bug eggs.

 

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"Tests have shown that these wasps will destroy up to 80 percent of the stink bug population," says Kim Hoelmer, the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture scientist in charge of the project. "They're efficient egg-stinging machines. For something so tiny, it's absolutely amazing the behaviors that are hard-wired into their little brains."

 

Stink bugs aren't a threat to human health. And if they were merely odoriferous and annoying, chances are that the nation's top bug experts wouldn't be going to so much trouble to locate and develop an insect assassin.

 

But not only do stink bugs represent an unprecedented threat to U.S. vegetable farms and orchards, they have the potential to drive up food prices just when the nation is struggling to emerge from a recession. Bug experts say that the Asian wasp may be one of their best tools for keeping the stink bug population down to a manageable buzz.

 

"I've never seen such a serious pest enter the U.S. agricultural system," said Tracy Lesky, research entomologist with the West Virginia-based Appalachian Fruit Research Station, "if only because they attack so many crops."

 

Populations of stink bugs have been increasing steadily in Maryland for the past five years, and are poised to invade the state in record numbers during the coming growing season.

 

"I think we're going to have a bumper crop," says Michael Raupp, an entomologist at the University of Maryland. "If 1 in 10 people had stink bugs in 2010, 9 in 10 people will have them in 2011."

 

Hoelmer and his team have been importing and studying the parasites since 2005.

 

Because the wasps are not allowed inside the United States except for research purposes, technicians must don biohazard suits before going through a set of five pressurized locked doors inside the Louis A. Stearns Laboratory, where the wasps are housed.

 

Inside the quarantine rooms, research technician Kathy Tatman stuck a wad of cotton inside a piece of plastic tubing. She inserted the other end of the tube into a petri dish in which live wasps are kept, and inhaled through the cotton until several female bugs were pulled up into the tube. Tatman moved the tube into a second petri dish containing a fresh layer of pale green stink bug eggs, breathed out, and deposited the mama wasps on a nearby leaf.

 

Once the wasps find the egg mass, she said, they will almost certainly "sting" every one, eventually killing the embryonic stink bugs inside.

 

Preliminary indications are that wasps are effective, Hoelmer said, and, just as important, won't attack other, more beneficial bugs.

 

But establishing the necessary scientific proofs takes time. If all goes well, Hoelmer hopes to have authorization to release the Asian wasps into the environment some time in 2013.

 

For desperate farmers, two years might not be soon enough. So last month, Maryland joined nine other states and submitted a grant proposal for $22 million to the National Institute of Food and Agriculture to explore both long and short-term solutions to the stink bug problem.

 

Hoelmer's wasps are part of that proposal. So are a group of scientists in Beltsville who think they have identified the stink bug pheromone, or chemical signal, that causes a large amount of the insects to congregate. If researchers can replicate the pheromone, they could potentially trap and kill the bugs before they damage the fruit.

 

Researchers also are trying to come up with pesticides that will poison stink bugs, repellants that will deter them, fungi that will attack them, and a various other methods.

 

"We're taking a cafeteria of different approaches," Lesky said.

 

"We still don't have any proven tools, but we're way ahead of where we were at this time last year. We have all the pieces in place, and we're working to find solutions as quickly as we can."

 

Right now, stink bugs are causing the most damage to the mid-Atlantic region. But it's only a matter of time before the epidemic reaches the rest of the nation.

 

Stink bugs are portable, voracious and formidably adaptable, and populations of the insect have been verified in 33 states.

 

Brown marmorated stink bugs can walk, and they can fly long distances. They are superb hitchhikers, often traveling unseen inside the door jamb of a car or truck. They can live in wet places and dry. They flourish in hot climates, and in cold ones.

 

In China, Japan and Korea, stink bugs don't have much of a taste for veggies, but in the United States, the bugs will happily consume everything from soybeans to tomatoes. The insects also seem to enjoy munching on such ornamental shrubs as butterfly bush and dogwoods.

 

Orchard owner Robert Black knows the bug experts are doing everything they can. He just hopes he can hold on long enough for them to find a solution.

 

Last season, he found stink bug damage on a third of the Catoctin Mountain Orchard's entire fruit crop, and on fully half of his Pink Lady apples.

 

Though Black can recoup some of his loss by converting damaged produce to applesauce and juice, these items are much less profitable than whole fruit.

 

"We need help," Black said. "I had 30 to 35 percent damage last season, and I can't handle 40 to 50 percent. That's what I'm scared about."

 

He warned that if the problem continues unabated for too long, food prices could rise.

 

"This is a major problem, not just for fruit growers, but for consumers," he said. "I don't mean to scare people, but eventually, this could start affecting the food supply. People can live without gasoline, but they can't live without food."

 

U.S. Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett will hold a town hall meeting for farmers in Emmitsburg on March 18 specifically to discuss the stink bug problem in Maryland.

 

"Stink bugs have all the features you'd design in a terrorist bug," he said. "They're an invasive species, and they have no native predators. They eat every plant with a thin skin and sugar. They could inflict a plague of biblical proportions."

 

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Plowing new vegetable ground in S. Africa

 

(AP via RN-T.com) WOODBINE, Ga. – If Robbie Edalgo had any doubts about the importance of his trip to South Africa, a tribe leader cleared them up in his first meeting.

 

"He told me, 'We need vegetables because our people are sick with HIV, and we can't afford medicine. Vegetables are our medicine,'" said Edalgo, Camden County's (Georgia) Cooperative Extension coordinator.

 

The agriculture expert, 35, whose position is funded jointly by the Camden County Board of Commissioners and the University of Georgia, was chosen to serve for three weeks as a teacher in the Farmer to Farmer program headed by Florida A&M University. The cost of the trip was covered in full by a USAID grant.

 

His assignment was to teach villagers in Alice, South Africa, how to better manage crop diseases in a cooperative gardening program at the University of Fort Hare. But he quickly learned that he could take nothing for granted in a place where a few modern pieces of technology are intermixed with early 19th century equipment; where products like fungicide are too expensive; and where food is often so scarce that leftover scraps are kept rather than tossed on a compost heap.

 

Edalgo surveyed every stage of the program's production process, from a seedling nursery to the fields and on to a kitchen that dehydrated most of the produce. The food was ultimately put into packages and soup mixes to be sold throughout the region.

 

The farmland belongs to the university, but the villagers are in charge of farming it. The school rents them some equipment, such as its tractor, but otherwise they must use their own resources.

 

With a translator at his side, Edalgo taught classes to the villagers and conducted on-site lessons on powdery mildew, weed control and crop rotation.

 

He found growing conditions in Alice similar to those in Camden County.

 

"The elevation is different, but the climate is quite similar," he said.

 

But he had to change his thinking by about six months.

 

Because Alice is south of the equator, its cold and hot seasons are the opposite of America's. When Edalgo arrived in April, the villagers were planting cabbage and other cool season crops.

 

When Edalgo visited a field, he found villagers leading two powerful oxen that pulled a harrow to till between the rows of cabbage. But something was wrong: One man had been assigned to follow the group and push mounds of tilled dirt off the cabbage with a stick. Edalgo quickly realized the villagers were tilling too wide a swath between the vegetable rows, which in turn created more disease than it stopped. He showed the farmers how to narrow the harrow forks, which would make the process work as it was intended.

 

Edalgo also found that the borders between various crops were blurred. He had signs made and showed the farmers how to divide the fields into quadrants that would help them keep track of their plantings. Then, he explained to them, they could begin rotating crops each season.

 

"By rotating, your disease frequency goes way down because many diseases are host-specific," Edalgo explained. He gave the farmers charts explaining the various vegetable families they should rotate through.

 

The farmers listened, but they also hesitated when they saw unfamiliar produce on the lists. They had been eating corn, carrots and butternut squash all their lives, but what on earth was okra?

 

"Okra would be a great producer there, but they don't plant it. They've never planted it," Edalgo said. "They're very focused on eating what they've been eating for generations."

 

Edalgo urged the farmers to give the new vegetables a try.

 

"It will be a hard sell for them, at least at the beginning," Edalgo said, "but I think it's an opportunity for a niche market that could really help them."

 

He also talked to them about weed control and using cover crops instead of allowing fields to overgrow. The weeds attract insects and disease, he explained through his translator.

 

Edalgo said there is a lot of potential for commercial farming in South Africa, but educational programs like Farmer to Farmer are critical.

 

"You've got to remember, it's only been 15 years since apartheid," he said. "The few commercial farms used to belong mostly to the white farmers, but now the land has been redistributed and the government is looking to make larger sections of the country commercial."

 

The extension coordinator returned to Camden County with a new appreciation for the advantages Americans have in farming and gardening. He also had new experiences to share with the community, and photos to show exactly what happens when disease control practices aren't followed.

 

Edalgo, who lives with his wife and two children in Folkston, grew up in "watermelon country" in Southwest Georgia. He knew Africa would be very different from home, but felt moved to help when FAMU sent out an e-mail last spring looking for agriculture experts to participate last spring. He found the trip to be an education as much for himself as it was for those he taught.

 

Edalgo stays in touch with some of the villagers, and he recently had vegetable seeds shipped to Alice's elementary school. He'd like to return to South Africa for another Farmer to Farmer mission, and, in fact, he's already put in his application.

 

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Berkeley project seeks global warming truth

 

(guardian.co.uk) – In 1964, Richard Muller, a 20-year-old graduate student with neat-cropped hair, walked into Sproul Hall at the University of California, Berkeley, and joined a mass protest of unprecedented scale. The activists, a few thousand strong, demanded that the university lift a ban on free speech and ease restrictions on academic freedom, while outside on the steps a young folk-singer called Joan Baez led supporters in a chorus of We Shall Overcome. The sit-in ended two days later when police stormed the building in the early hours and arrested hundreds of students. Muller was thrown into Oakland jail. The heavy-handedness sparked further unrest and, a month later, the university administration backed down. The protest was a pivotal moment for the civil liberties movement and marked Berkeley as a haven of free thinking and fierce independence.

 

Today, Muller is still on the Berkeley campus, probably the only member of the free speech movement arrested that night to end up with a faculty position there – as a professor of physics. His list of publications is testament to the free rein of tenure: he worked on the first light from the big bang, proposed a new theory of ice ages, and found evidence for an upturn in impact craters on the moon. His expertise is highly sought after. For more than 30 years, he was a member of the independent Jason group that advises the US government on defence; his college lecture series, Physics for Future Presidents was voted best class on campus, went stratospheric on YouTube and, in 2009, was turned into a bestseller.

 

For the past year, Muller has kept a low profile, working quietly on a new project with a team of academics hand-picked for their skills. They meet on campus regularly, to check progress, thrash out problems and hunt for oversights that might undermine their work. And for good reason. When Muller and his team go public with their findings in a few weeks, they will be muscling in on the ugliest and most hard-fought debate of modern times.

 

Muller calls his latest obsession the Berkeley Earth project. The aim is so simple that the complexity and magnitude of the undertaking is easy to miss. Starting from scratch, with new computer tools and more data than has ever been used, they will arrive at an independent assessment of global warming. The team will also make every piece of data it uses – 1.6bn data points – freely available on a website. It will post its workings alongside, including full information on how more than 100 years of data from thousands of instruments around the world are stitched together to give a historic record of the planet's temperature.

 

Muller is fed up with the politicised row that all too often engulfs climate science. By laying all its data and workings out in the open, where they can be checked and challenged by anyone, the Berkeley team hopes to achieve something remarkable: a broader consensus on global warming. In no other field would Muller's dream seem so ambitious, or perhaps, so naive.

 

"We are bringing the spirit of science back to a subject that has become too argumentative and too contentious," Muller says, over a cup of tea. "We are an independent, non-political, non-partisan group. We will gather the data, do the analysis, present the results and make all of it available. There will be no spin, whatever we find." Why does Muller feel compelled to shake up the world of climate change? "We are doing this because it is the most important project in the world today. Nothing else comes close," he says.

 

Muller is moving into crowded territory with sharp elbows. There are already three heavyweight groups that could be considered the official keepers of the world's climate data. Each publishes its own figures that feed into the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City produces a rolling estimate of the world's warming. A separate assessment comes from another US agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa). The third group is based in the UK and led by the Met Office. They all take readings from instruments around the world to come up with a rolling record of the Earth's mean surface temperature. The numbers differ because each group uses its own dataset and does its own analysis, but they show a similar trend. Since pre-industrial times, all point to a warming of around 0.75C.

 

You might think three groups was enough, but Muller rolls out a list of shortcomings, some real, some perceived, that he suspects might undermine public confidence in global warming records. For a start, he says, warming trends are not based on all the available temperature records. The data that is used is filtered and might not be as representative as it could be. He also cites a poor history of transparency in climate science, though others argue many climate records and the tools to analyse them have been public for years.

 

Then there is the fiasco of 2009 that saw roughly 1,000 emails from a server at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) find their way on to the internet. The fuss over the messages, inevitably dubbed Climategate, gave Muller's nascent project added impetus. Climate sceptics had already attacked James Hansen, head of the Nasa group, for making political statements on climate change while maintaining his role as an objective scientist. The Climategate emails fuelled their protests. "With CRU's credibility undergoing a severe test, it was all the more important to have a new team jump in, do the analysis fresh and address all of the legitimate issues raised by sceptics," says Muller.

 

This latest point is where Muller faces his most delicate challenge. To concede that climate sceptics raise fair criticisms means acknowledging that scientists and government agencies have got things wrong, or at least could do better. But the debate around global warming is so highly charged that open discussion, which science requires, can be difficult to hold in public. At worst, criticising poor climate science can be taken as an attack on science itself, a knee-jerk reaction that has unhealthy consequences. "Scientists will jump to the defence of alarmists because they don't recognise that the alarmists are exaggerating," Muller says.

 

The Berkeley Earth project came together more than a year ago, when Muller rang David Brillinger, a statistics professor at Berkeley and the man Nasa called when it wanted someone to check its risk estimates of space debris smashing into the International Space Station. He wanted Brillinger to oversee every stage of the project. Brillinger accepted straight away. Since the first meeting he has advised the scientists on how best to analyse their data and what pitfalls to avoid. "You can think of statisticians as the keepers of the scientific method, " Brillinger told me. "Can scientists and doctors reasonably draw the conclusions they are setting down? That's what we're here for."

 

For the rest of the team, Muller says he picked scientists known for original thinking. One is Saul Perlmutter, the Berkeley physicist who found evidence that the universe is expanding at an ever faster rate, courtesy of mysterious "dark energy" that pushes against gravity. Another is Art Rosenfeld, the last student of the legendary Manhattan Project physicist Enrico Fermi, and something of a legend himself in energy research. Then there is Robert Jacobsen, a Berkeley physicist who is an expert on giant datasets; and Judith Curry, a climatologist at Georgia Institute of Technology, who has raised concerns over tribalism and hubris in climate science.

 

Robert Rohde, a young physicist who left Berkeley with a PhD last year, does most of the hard work. He has written software that trawls public databases, themselves the product of years of painstaking work, for global temperature records. These are compiled, de-duplicated and merged into one huge historical temperature record. The data, by all accounts, are a mess. There are 16 separate datasets in 14 different formats and they overlap, but not completely. Muller likens Rohde's achievement to Hercules's enormous task of cleaning the Augean stables.

 

The wealth of data Rohde has collected so far – and some dates back to the 1700s – makes for what Muller believes is the most complete historical record of land temperatures ever compiled. It will, of itself, Muller claims, be a priceless resource for anyone who wishes to study climate change. So far, Rohde has gathered records from 39,340 individual stations worldwide.

 

Publishing an extensive set of temperature records is the first goal of Muller's project. The second is to turn this vast haul of data into an assessment on global warming. Here, the Berkeley team is going its own way again. The big three groups – Nasa, Noaa and the Met Office – work out global warming trends by placing an imaginary grid over the planet and averaging temperatures records in each square. So for a given month, all the records in England and Wales might be averaged out to give one number. Muller's team will take temperature records from individual stations and weight them according to how reliable they are.

 

This is where the Berkeley group faces its toughest task by far and it will be judged on how well it deals with it. There are errors running through global warming data that arise from the simple fact that the global network of temperature stations was never designed or maintained to monitor climate change. The network grew in a piecemeal fashion, starting with temperature stations installed here and there, usually to record local weather.

 

Among the trickiest errors to deal with are so-called systematic biases, which skew temperature measurements in fiendishly complex ways. Stations get moved around, replaced with newer models, or swapped for instruments that record in celsius instead of fahrenheit. The times measurements are taken varies, from say 6am to 9pm. The accuracy of individual stations drift over time and even changes in the surroundings, such as growing trees, can shield a station more from wind and sun one year to the next. Each of these interferes with a station's temperature measurements, perhaps making it read too cold, or too hot. And these errors combine and build up.

 

This is the real mess that will take a Herculean effort to clean up. The Berkeley Earth team is using algorithms that automatically correct for some of the errors, a strategy Muller favours because it doesn't rely on human interference. When the team publishes its results, this is where the scrutiny will be most intense.

 

Despite the scale of the task, and the fact that world-class scientific organisations have been wrestling with it for decades, Muller is convinced his approach will lead to a better assessment of how much the world is warming. "I've told the team I don't know if global warming is more or less than we hear, but I do believe we can get a more precise number, and we can do it in a way that will cool the arguments over climate change, if nothing else," says Muller. "Science has its weaknesses and it doesn't have a stranglehold on the truth, but it has a way of approaching technical issues that is a closer approximation of truth than any other method we have."

 

He will find out soon enough if his hopes to forge a true consensus on climate change are misplaced. It might not be a good sign that one prominent climate sceptic contacted by the Guardian, Canadian economist Ross McKitrick, had never heard of the project. Another, Stephen McIntyre, whom Muller has defended on some issues, hasn't followed the project either, but said "anything that [Muller] does will be well done". Phil Jones at the University of East Anglia was unclear on the details of the Berkeley project and didn't comment.

 

Elsewhere, Muller has qualified support from some of the biggest names in the business. At Nasa, Hansen welcomed the project, but warned against over-emphasising what he expects to be the minor differences between Berkeley's global warming assessment and those from the other groups. "We have enough trouble communicating with the public already," Hansen says. At the Met Office, Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution, was in favour of the project if it was open and peer-reviewed.

 

Peter Thorne, who left the Met Office's Hadley Centre last year to join the Co-operative Institute for Climate and Satellites in North Carolina, is enthusiastic about the Berkeley project but raises an eyebrow at some of Muller's claims. The Berkeley group will not be the first to put its data and tools online, he says. Teams at Nasa and Noaa have been doing this for many years. And while Muller may have more data, they add little real value, Thorne says. Most are records from stations installed from the 1950s onwards, and then only in a few regions, such as North America. "Do you really need 20 stations in one region to get a monthly temperature figure? The answer is no. Supersaturating your coverage doesn't give you much more bang for your buck," he says. They will, however, help researchers spot short-term regional variations in climate change, something that is likely to be valuable as climate change takes hold.

 

Despite his reservations, Thorne says climate science stands to benefit from Muller's project. "We need groups like Berkeley stepping up to the plate and taking this challenge on, because it's the only way we're going to move forwards. I wish there were 10 other groups doing this," he says.

 

For the time being, Muller's project is organised under the auspices of Novim, a Santa Barbara-based non-profit organisation that uses science to find answers to the most pressing issues facing society and to publish them "without advocacy or agenda". Funding has come from a variety of places, including the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (funded by Bill Gates), and the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley Lab. One donor has had some climate bloggers up in arms: the man behind the Charles G Koch Charitable Foundation owns, with his brother David, Koch Industries, a company Greenpeace called a "kingpin of climate science denial". On this point, Muller says the project has taken money from right and left alike.

 

No one who spoke to the Guardian about the Berkeley Earth project believed it would shake the faith of the minority who have set their minds against global warming. "As new kids on the block, I think they will be given a favourable view by people, but I don't think it will fundamentally change people's minds," says Thorne. Brillinger has reservations too. "There are people you are never going to change. They have their beliefs and they're not going to back away from them."

 

Waking across the Berkeley campus, Muller stops outside Sproul Hall, where he was arrested more than 40 years ago. Today, the adjoining plaza is a designated protest spot, where student activists gather to wave banners, set up tables and make speeches on any cause they choose. Does Muller think his latest project will make any difference? "Maybe we'll find out that what the other groups do is absolutely right, but we're doing this in a new way. If the only thing we do is allow a consensus to be reached as to what is going on with global warming, a true consensus, not one based on politics, then it will be an enormously valuable achievement."

 

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