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" I heard it
through the
AgLine"
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May 18, 2011
·
Deere poised
to reap profits from farm boom
·
Labor
shortage hinders Florida small growers
·
World’s largest
carrot grower turns on the sun
·
Geneticists
strive to build a better honeybee
·
Farming on
water: Stackable and sustainable
Deere poised to reap profits from farm boom
NEW YORK
(TheStreet) -- "Farmers have never been rolling in
more money than they are right now," says Charlie Rentschler,
who has a unique angle on the situation.
Rentschler, who escaped the East
Coast for rural Indiana
three decades ago, is probably the only Wall Street stock analyst who's also a
farmer. He owns 200 acres in southeast Indiana,
where he grows corn and winter wheat. (He also used to raise hogs, but no
more.) Educated at Princeton and Harvard, a former McKinsey consultant, he
analyzes the equities of agricultural companies for the Philadelphia investment firm Boenning & Scattergood. He's been known to use his
Hoosier domains to field test (literally) the products of the companies he
covers, mostly notably the bioengineered seeds of Monsanto(MON).
He also uses the fertilizers of CF Industries(CF), and
the farm equipment of Deere(DE).
Rentschler knows well that wealthy
growers are good for the businesses of ag giants like
Deere. As the maker of the iconic green machines gets ready to report fiscal
second-quarter results before Wednesday's opening bell, he also knows that
Deere will continue on the upswing it's experienced (along with the rest of the
agriculture industry) since a series of weather-related supply shocks last year
sparked a boom in farm commodities that has caused food-price inflation all
over the world (and, indirectly, political uprisings in the Middle East).
Meanwhile, the boom has driven Deere shares, which trade in
tandem with crop prices on the commodities markets, to all-time heights. Before
a pullback in commodities that started at the beginning of May, shares of the Moline, Ill.,
company reached a peak of $99.80 on April 1. (They finished trading on Monday
at $88.13.) Still, valuations haven't grown out of whack, according to
analysts, since the company is also booking record profits.
According to the consensus estimate of 11 Wall Street analysts, Deere will
report earnings of $2.06 a share for its fiscal second quarter ended in April,
up from $1.58 a year earlier. Revenue will rise to $8.14 billion from $6.55
billion last year, analysts say. If the company hits both targets, it will mean
growth of 16% on the bottom line and 24% on the top.
Renstchler thinks estimates for
Deere -- both for the second quarter and for all of 2011 -- remain low. The Wall Street consensus target for Deere's fiscal 2011 calls for
EPS of $6.23. "This company is typically conservative," Rentschler said in an interview. "And I guess I'd be
looking for any signs of them saying that business is better than they
expected." For him, a solid beat by Deere in the second quarter -- much
like the first -- wouldn't amount to much of a surprise.
Other analysts are equally bullish, but they point
nevertheless to a few uncertainties. Chief among them is (as usual for
agriculture) the weather, with heavy rains and massive Mississippi flooding in
the heart of the Midwestern corn belt that has kept soils too moist to plant,
delaying the growing season and possibly hurting crop output this year. (Though farmers seem to have closed the gap of late, according to
the latest reports on Agriculture.com.)
Whether this is good or bad for farmers is a tricky
question, and one that will affect the likes of Deere only in 2012. It also
depends on how severe any shortfall in crop output might be. "Farmers
might be hurt if they can't produce a given amount of the commodity," said
Michael Jaffe, an analyst who covers Deere for Standard & Poor's. "I'd
like to hear from management how confident they are in their business remaining
strong given what's been going on lately," he said.
Others are more sanguine. Any decline in output and yields
wouldn't likely be enough to offset the consequent rise in prices that such
supply constraints would cause in the commodities markets, the bulls say.
Charlie Rentschler noted that
professional crop watchers at Iowa State University
recently predicted average corn yields for U.S. farmers in 2011 of just 147
bushels per acre. That's much weaker than the "trend line," which has
been calling for yields of about 160 bushels per acre.
Still, said Renstchler,
"Those shortfalls in yield are typically made up for by an increase in
revenues. I think it's bullish overall for
farmers."
If it holds, those same trends will continue to drive the
earnings growth and share values of companies across the agrarian industries,
from fertilizer producers like CF Industries and Potash(POT),
to farm-gear retailers like Agrium(AGU), to the ag commodities middleman Archer
Daniels Midland(ADM).
All of those stocks reached all-time highs earlier this
year.
Though much is made by these companies during their investor
roadshows about the long-term trends of population
growth and the inevitable rise of food demand, the simple truth remains: Deere
and these other ag names trade in sync with ag
commodities prices -- and thus the weather.
When it comes to Deere, Rentschler's
biggest concern is a longer term one. "The thing I would wonder: Does
there come a point when Deere has satisfied demand for large equipment? It's
not typical you buy a new tractor every year. Some guys do. But most hold out
till the end of the warranty, and then flip it." Though farmers are as
flush as they've ever been, he added, "buying
sprees don't last forever."
Meanwhile, Deere's construction-gear, though a far smaller
segment and dwarfed by rivals like Caterpillar(CAT),
stands to benefit from any uptick in that still-downtrodden sector.
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Labor shortage hinders Florida small growers
(Bradenton.com)
DUETTE -- Felicia Tappan of Duette,
Fla., was up at 5 a.m. one day this week to
drive a load of organic blueberries to a processing plant in Winter Haven. She had no problem with the
early hour. Tappan was happy to have been able to just get her niche crop
harvested given the current shortage of farm labor.
Initially, she was only able to find a crew of six to
harvest the berries on her Vintage Organic Acres farm at 30902 Taylor Grade Road.
“It’s real intense work, even though it’s only 3 1/2 acres,”
Tappan said.
Pickers have to be able to sort by color and size, and the
berries are picked one at a time below waist level.
In the quest for farm labor, her foreman went door to door
in Wimauma, while Tappan beat the bushes in Duette, checking Social Security cards and photo IDs to come
up with 40 legal workers.
She was able to avert having to throw her field open to
U-pickers to keep the prized berries from going to waste.
It’s not a problem unique to Vintage Organic Acres.
Hunsader Farms in East Manatee had
to open its fields to the public because there weren’t enough workers to do the
back-breaking work.
“Last year we did this because the price for a 25-pound
bucket of tomatoes on the wholesale market was only three or four dollars so it
didn’t make economic sense to pick,” co-owner David Hunsader
previously told the Bradenton Herald. “This year the price is good, about $14
for a bucket, but we can’t find enough labor to pick them.”
Tappan, Hunsader, and other
growers understand the problem with undocumented workers in the United States
but would like to see a workable solution to the farm labor shortage.
“It’s a hot topic, but we were all immigrants at one time,”
Tappan said. “As farmers we shouldn’t have to plant our crops around these kind of issues. We’re feeding the world.”
Tappan and her husband, Wade, have lived in Duette since 1987, and know full well the challenges of
farming, even when labor is plentiful.
The Tappans planted their first
blueberries in 2007 on former orange grove land. They plowed under the diseased
orange trees and started over, planting the blueberries in 40 semi-tractor
loads of pine bark.
They had also operated a tree farm on the property for 20
years, but that business went into a tailspin after the disastrous hurricanes
of 2004 and 2005, and a collapse of the market.
“It got to the point that it wasn’t worth taking the
equipment out,” Felicia Tappan said.
Due to the riskiness of the business, Wade Tappan has a job
off the farm. He works at Mote Marine’s aquaculture project in eastern Sarasota County, raising sturgeon.
Each year, however, the maturing blueberry bushes improve
their yield and at the height of the season, pickers were collecting 1,200
pounds of berries three times a week.
“Next year, we expect to double that,” Tappan said.For the next two weeks, she will allow U-pickers into
her field, but she says call first at (941) 920-1801 before making the long
drive.
Neighbor Betty Stewart said she is impressed with how hard
Felicia Tappan works and how she keeps reinventing herself.
“We have seen her working on her tractor and whatever else
needs to be done. She’s not afraid to tackle anything,” Stewart said.
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World’s largest carrot grower turns
on the sun
(CVBT)
Grimmway Enterprises Inc., which says it is the largest carrot grower in the
world, is making its carrots green.
It has turned on a 230-kilowatt ground-mounted solar power
system, featuring more than 1,000 solar modules, on one of its carrot farms
near Arvin in the Central Valley.
The system was designed by Conergy
USA Inc., a unit of Conergy AG of Hamburg,
Germany, with SC Anderson
Inc. of Bakersfield
as the general contractor.
Conergy says the installation will
prevent the release of around 150,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per year, reduce
energy consumption by 40 percent and reduce the electric bill by 50 percent.
“We are very happy to support the green path of Grimmway
Enterprises,” says Conergy Project Development
Manager David Vincent.
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Geneticists strive to build a better
honeybee
(Nature.com)
– For Scott Cornman, the honeybee genome is a prized
resource, yet he spends much of his time removing it. Cornman,
a geneticist for the Bee Research Laboratory of the US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) in Beltsville, Maryland, is trying to characterize the
various pathogens that plague the honeybee (Apis mellifera), arguably the world's most important insect.
His strategy is to subtract the honeybee genome from every
other stray bit of genetic residue he can find in bee colonies, healthy and
diseased. The remaining genetic material gives a complex metagenomic
portrait of other organisms that inhabit the bee's world, including viruses,
bacteria and fungi — some novel — that, alone or in combination, might push a
bee colony into precipitous decline.
"Right now we're in the discovery phase, where we're
trying to identify what's present," says Cornman.
"Then we can start looking at the interactions of pathogens and see if
they're more virulent than any by themselves."
Cornman was among 100 or so
researchers in attendance last week at the Honey Bee Genomics & Biology
meeting, held at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York. It was the first dedicated
conference on the topic since researchers met four years ago, soon after the
honeybee genome was sequenced (Honeybee Genome Sequencing Consortium Nature
443, 931–949; 2006), and for many it was a chance to marvel at a field
transformed.
"There has been a lot of progress made on how disease
affects honeybees at the molecular level," says Christina Grozinger, director of Pennsylvania State University's
Center for Pollinator Research in University Park, one of the conference
organizers. Around the same time that the genome was first published, honeybee
colonies across much of the Northern Hemisphere began to show alarming
declines. A syndrome dubbed colony collapse disorder (CCD) has been causing the
insects to die off in large numbers, leaving well-provisioned hives suddenly
empty. Meanwhile, other parasites, such as the Varroa mite (Varroa destructor),
which spreads harmful viruses, continue to take their toll. Annual surveys in
the United States
show that almost 35% of all colonies die during a typical winter. Genomics is
yielding new clues to the still-mysterious phenomenon, as well as potential
strategies for protecting the insects from a multitude of threats.
At the meeting, Cornman presented
data showing that hives affected by CCD have higher levels of microscopic gut
fungi called Nosema, and a greater prevalence of
several viruses, two of which had not been detected in bees before.
Yet despite having a multitude of enemies, many bees are
holding their own, says research entomologist Jay Evans of the USDA's bee
laboratory. "The question is not why are bees getting sick, but how are
they surviving against this onslaught of parasites," he says.
The genome offers a window into the bees' immune pathways,
Evans adds. The goal is to identify the genes that are crucial in helping bees
thwart attack, and, ultimately, to strengthen these defences.
"You can breed for these traits, but with genetic markers you could do it
faster," he says.
In cases in which nature cannot do the job, some researchers
are now exploring more direct ways of boosting bees' resilience. In some
insects, double-stranded RNA, a hallmark of viral infection, can provoke a
specific antiviral immune response. At the meeting, Michelle Flenniken, a virologist at the University
of California, San Francisco, presented evidence that, in
honeybees, it can also trigger a general immune response that might ward off a
variety of threats. "This may be a new viral response that hasn't been
well-characterized in honeybees," says Flenniken,
who is exploring the genes involved in the process. "What we think we've
found is a window into this new immune-response pathway."
Flenniken adds that knowing more
about the bee's immune responses might help researchers to find ways of
"priming the system" and help bees to cope with their foes at the
genomic level. Such a prospect may be a long way off, but it's certain to keep
researchers abuzz until their next gathering.
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Farming on water: Stackable and
sustainable
(chicagotribune.com)
– John Edel is turning a former meatpacking plant on
the edge of Chicago's
old Union Stockyards into an indoor farm.
In the basement, microorganisms are eating tilapia waste,
converting it into fertilizer for the lettuce, kale and wheatgrass growing in a
shallow pool of water nearby.
This process is called aquaponic
farming. It minimizes water use while allowing year-round harvests, and it's
just the beginning of Edel's vision for a futuristic,
urban farm he has called "The Plant."
"The idea is that nothing leaves the facility but food
— period," said Edel, 41. Half of The Plant will
be rented to startup food companies, including a commercial brewery.
The heart of America's
urban agriculture movement is Milwaukee,
where Will Allen, a sharecropper's son and former professional basketball
player, has turned a dilapidated plant nursery into a cutting-edge urban farm,
raising plants and vegetables, plus the thousands of tilapia needed to
fertilize them.
Allen's disciples are converting far less logical sites into
aquaponic farms. In Chicago's
Bridgeport
neighborhood, for example, his daughter, Erika Allen, is building the Iron
Street Farm in a former truck depot.
Edel will be among the first to
expand this concept across multiple floors of a single building: A shuttered
93,500-square-foot former pork-packing plant.
We're running out land to feed the world's exploding
population. (New York City's approximately 8
million inhabitants, for instance, eat an amount of food that requires a land
mass the size of Virginia to grow, according
to Dickson Despommier, a Columbia University
professor and prominent vertical farms advocate.)
Farms of the future must occupy less space, rely on fewer
pesticides and produce food that travels blocks, not miles to our tables, given
the skyrocketing cost of fuel. Such requirements have spawned concepts of farms
being housed in glass skyscrapers from Chicago
to Dubai.
"We're not proponents of these fantasy
skyscrapers," said Erika Allen, who is beginning to construct greenhouses
and install fish tanks at Iron Street Farm. "The whole goal is to create a
farm that's sustainable and makes money. And you can't make money if your
infrastructure costs are too high."
What's profitable and achievable, Allen says, are tiered aquaponic systems, or minivertical
farms in which fish and plants coexist off each other. Their ecosystems are
linked via tubes.
Waste to energy
Edel's building at 1400 West 46th Street
is a place children would dare each other to sneak into; the escapade ending
when a pipe suddenly clanked and everyone bolted. Keeping scrappers away,
however, is a different matter. Edel recently
installed a security alarm that blares as loud as a tornado siren to keep them
from trying to break in to steal metal.
Inside, broken concrete floors crackle as I walk. Dozens of
windows have been filled with bricks. It is dark and cold.
But within a few years, Edel says
a complex food-production system will be in place, the key to which is a $1
million, yet-to-be-bought anaerobic digester. Everything, and I mean
everything, will be fed into it, from rotting tomatoes and meat, to brown and
yellow grease.
On my last visit, it smelled like yeast outside.
"It gives us cover if we want to make foul smells of
our own from time to time," Edel said.
The digester will convert the waste into gas, which will
power a generator, which will power the facility. ComEd
will not have to supply electricity.
"That's what takes us to the next level" of
sustainability, Edel said. Most of "the power
for the anaerobic digester will come from neighboring businesses' waste. …
We're looking at 18 tons a day of biomass to power this place."
Edel anticipates receiving 2.1
million gallons a year of "beefy, sludge bioproduct"
from a local food-flavoring maker. But the brewery, bakeries and the
mom-and-pop tenants who will rent commercial kitchen space from Edel also will send their waste to the digester.
"Oddly enough, one of the great realizations we're
having is we aren't going to be heating much at all," Edel
said. "We're going to be cooling almost all the year in this building
because all of the activities are heat-producing, especially these growing
systems."
The building, formerly occupied by Peer Foods, was shuttered
four years ago when the meat packer shipped 400 skilled jobs to Columbus, Ind.,
save a security guard. Edel, a lifelong Chicagoan and
general contractor, bought the building last year for $525,000, the estimated
value of the metal inside it. He reasoned that its floor drains, vapor-tight
light fixtures, stainless steel evaporators and a chemistry lab would be ideal
for food businesses.
Edel estimates that apart from the
digester, the build-out will cost only $750,000. That's because Edel barters for things he needs and also counts on help.
On average, six volunteers a day are involved in demolition
or remodeling. On a recent Saturday, Nick Santillan
hammered away at cinder blocks in what was once a worker locker room. By day,
he said he's a music producer.
Edel also is a recycler.
Meat-hanging rails, for example, will serve as bike racks. Former smokehouses
will be remodeled into bathrooms.
Idea planted early
Edel, who grew up in Rogers Park,
looks the part of environmentalist/mad genius. He was wearing jeans and a khaki
button-down shirt, both covered in dirt, when I met him. His reddish-beard had
grown down the sides of his neck.
"One of the things I always wanted to do was grow
plants inside industrial buildings since I was kid," he said.
"Walking around in the Garfield Park Conservatory 35 years ago with my
grandmother, and seeing this amazing derelict, rusting, collapsing place with
water dripping everywhere and beautiful plants in it was kind of a
transformative thing for me."
After graduating from the University
of Illinois at Chicago, he worked in set design and computer
graphics. He has spent the last decade building a resume in the green-building
field but quit his day job four years ago.
In 2002, using savings and a $75,000 home-equity line of
credit on his Logan Square two-flat, he bought another old building, a
motorcycle junkyard at the time, and turned it into the Chicago Sustainable
Manufacturing Center.
Relying on bartering and recycling, Edel
said it cost him just $25 per square foot to renovate it. There is now a
waiting list for green businesses wanting to lease space there. The rental
income from the manufacturing center is paying for the mortgage on The Plant.
All that stands in Edel's way are
city rules.
The law permits him to conduct aquaponic
farming only for educational purposes, so his operation is run through a
partnership with the Illinois Institute of Technology.
Commercial fish farming is forbidden in Chicago because fish are classified as
livestock. Edel, who is aligned with Advocates for
Urban Agriculture, is pushing for changes in zoning that would allow fish
farming. "A change to the code is imperative,'' he said.
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End Transmission